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Vol. 2, No. 9
lHello and welcome back to another edition of Cus Words Sports!
This week in Ohio State football, the Buckeyes are headed to USC to face a talented team reeling from a big-time butt-kicking.
Of course, the big story is at quarterback for Ohio State following the injury to Julian Sayin.
We’ll take a closer look at that and everything else going on with the Buckeyes in our weekly roundup of news and notes.
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What to know about USC
The Trojans are 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten.
They won their first four against a very weak slate, then lost 41-27 to Oregon at home before outlasting Washington 25-21. They beat Penn State 31-23 in the Nittany Lions’ White Out game, then took a week off only to come back from the bye and get waxed by Wisconsin 24-7.
Lincoln Riley is 41-20 as head coach of the Trojans after going 55-10 at Oklahoma, where he rarely faced teams with the same level of talent as he sees in the Big Ten.
Series notes
USC leads the all-time series 13-10-1.
Ohio State won the last meeting 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29, 2017. That snapped a seven-game losing streak for the Buckeyes.
The last win before that was 42-21 in the 1974 Rose Bowl.
For more on this, check out this week’s Buckeye Historian from Cus Words Sports.
USC statistics of note
Riley is under fire for failing to live up to expectations in Los Angeles, but he has a veteran QB in Jayden Maiava and is banking both the present and the future on a very talented freshman class that is already getting a lot of playing time.
Maiava leads the Big Ten in passing yards, passing touchdowns and completions per game.
The Trojans are 44th in scoring and 34th in total offense, leaning heavily toward the pass (10th) and struggling to run the ball this season (106th).
They are 28th in passing efficiency and 119th in pass efficiency defense.
Allowing 25 points per game, USC is tied for 77th in the nation in scoring defense, 45th in total defense and underwater when it comes to turnovers (-.25 per game).
The Trojans are good on third down but have struggled in the red zone both scoring and stopping people.
They do have a good punting game and punt return unit, for what that is worth…
As far as advanced stats, USC is 18th in F+, which measures both play-by-play efficiency and drive efficiency. (Ohio State is No. 1.)
The USC offense is No. 5 while the defense is 61st by that metric.
Digging deeper into advanced numbers from CollegeFootballData.com paints a picture of a team that is efficient (No. 6 in success rate) but not explosive (105th) on offense and susceptible to giving up the big play on defense.
The Trojans are 69th in offensive line yards and 16th in front seven havoc rating so they have been average blocking for the run and largely avoided giving up sacks and tackles for loss — at least until last week when Wisconsin had five sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
USC is good on passing downs per advanced stats and third downs per traditional stats, so that figures to be a major inflection point for this game, especially if stud freshman nickel back Jay Timmons can’t go for Ohio State.
USC is 42nd in defensive line yards, 59th in rushing play success rate and 29th in preventing explosive runs, but the pass defense is a clear weakness.
Can the Buckeyes take advantage of that?
One also wonders if knowing the state of the Ohio State offense and his own defense’s limitations could cause USC defensive coordinator Gary Patterson to play his safeties deep and dare the Buckeyes to put together long drives.
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What else is going on this week?
The most interesting thing I heard from Ryan Day on Tuesday involved his desire to see the rest of the team rally around Julian Sayin’s replacement, calling it an opportunity for everyone to make their mark on the team and repeat some of the well-known history such as the 2014 season. I like that rhetoric, and not only because I wrote the same thing last week! Read more at BuckeyeInsiders.com.
So who is going to be the QB, anyway? Day wouldn’t spell it out clearly, but he pretty much confirmed it will be Luke Fahey when he said things were still progressing the same way they were previously when Fahey was the first guy off the bench ahead of Bellefontaine’s Tavien St. Clair.
Over at PressProsMagazine.com, publisher Sonny Fulks wondered if St. Clair getting passed over could have a chilling effect on in-state recruiting. That’s an interesting thought, though of course Day should go with whichever guy he thinks is most deserving regardless of anything else. The better story would be St. Clair coming to the rescue of this season, and that would make things easier for managing the roster next year since Fahey likely arrived figuring he would be the backup for multiple seasons, but that is a bridge that will have to be crossed later.
I would also say I think in-state recruiting has already been chilled by Day and director of player personnel Mark Pantoni making very clear they don’t prioritize Ohio players at all and in fact might lean more against recruiting them if anything. I broached that topic at BuckeyeInsiders.com as part of a larger discussion about the failed recruitment of Cincinnati Princeton RB Jordan Hall this week, and BI recruiting insider Juck Miletti has a look at where the Buckeyes turn now in the search for a back in the 2027 class.
As far as injuries, Timmons is listed as questionable along with senior WR Brandon Inniss. Freshman WR Brock Boyd is out, so we are likely to see a lot of Chris Henry Jr. and LSU transfer Kyle Parker. For USC, star freshman defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart and tight end Mark Bowman are among the questionable. Read more here.
Austin Siereveld is back after missing two games with a mystery illness. Day said he will play tackle but not if he would replace Ian Moore on the left or Phillip Daniels on the right.
Kenyatta Jackson Jr. not being on the report also indicates he’ll play after seeming to bang his knee on the turf at Indiana and temporarily leaving that game, and freshman DE Khary Wilder is back. That could impact the pass rush.
If you missed it, this week’s edition of Tressel Tales recapped a trip to Penn State that… did not go so well for the Scarlet and Gray.
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BONUS CONTENT!
Aside from this newsletter, I’m also sharing my thoughts on the premium messages board BuckeyeInsiders.com and BuckeyeSports.com.
Beyond that, I’m writing for multiple sites, including primarily PressProsMagazine.com, The Associated Press and MensJournal.com.
At MJ, you can find my college football viewing guide for the weekend and the new pizza style coming to Casey’s in Ohio and beyond.
Also be sure to check out PPM for the recaps of the first round of playoff action in Western Ohio. I’ll be covering St. Henry at Madison Plains.
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