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Vo. 1, No. 20
This week in Ohio State football, we are taking stock of the roster with the transfer portal closing and the deadline to declare for NFL Draft having passed.
When I began considering what this edition of TWiOSFB would look like, I was thinking it would be mostly a transfer portal newcomers breakdown.
After losing more than two dozen players early in the portal cycle (setting off panic throughout the internet), Ohio State stopped looking like a victim of the new system and went on the offensive, adding multiple potential impact players last week.
And then they kept coming and coming, including three more Thursday, so I concluded there are too many (15 now) to do that today.
I’ll still probably recap the class at some point, but by now it makes more sense to wait until Ohio State officially announces everyone they are bringing in and maybe even get Ryan Day’s thoughts on them1.
One of my goals for this particular feature of my newsletter is to wrap up the week, to put a bow on it both by collecting news items you might have missed and to add context to the things you might have seen but not stopped to think too much about because you have a life outside Ohio State football (what is that like, by the way?).
This seems like a great week to do that, so here we go (after the first ad break):
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Here’s the big picture:
Five players announced they are going pro with eligibility remaining: Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate, Kayden McDonald, Arvell Reese and Max Klare.
30 have entered the transfer portal, including starting right guard Tegra Tshabola and a handful of youngsters who were highly ranked recruits.
Eleven more ran out of eligibility, including Sonny Styles, Lorenzo Styles Jr., Caden Curry and Davison Igbinosun.
Losing 45 or so players seems like a lot, right?
Well, it is, but it looks like Ryan Day and his staff have met this challenge pretty well with a three-pronged strategy:
Recruit, retain and refill the roster.
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They planned ahead by signing 28 high schoolers in December
That was at least five more than expected when the cycle began.
A few could have an immediate impact such as five-star receiver Chris Henry Jr., but the incoming class also includes a handful of lower-ranked prospects they added late in the cycle after studying their senior film.
Perhaps they view some of those guys as true diamonds in the rough — the next A.J. Hawk or Chris Olave — but more likely they are viewed as developmental prospects.
Whereas some five-star and four-star recruits come in already looking like they can handle college football physically from day one, these are guys who need some time in the weight room and on the practice field before that might happen2.
Day has talked about bringing in more of those types of prospects, but now it has to look more appealing after seeing a handful of highly recruited prospects (who no doubt required more money to get in the building in the first place) walk without ever really contributing.
The incoming portal group falls into 3 buckets
The 16 newcomers* include expected immediate starters, potential future starters and some players who are most likely just expected to provide depth.
(Naturally they added LSU WR Kyle Parker about five minutes after I hit send on this newsletter.)
In a perfect world, they would rather just bring in No. 1, but this world is far from perfect.
The defection of a few guys who would be in line to be starters this year or next means adding more from category B and C.
For example:
Tight ends Mason Williams and Hunter Welcing replace Klare and Will Kacmarek.
Devin McCuin will be in the mix to replace Tate.
Earl Little Jr. and Terry Moore replace Downs and Lorenzo Styles Jr.
John Walker could join Will Smith Jr. in replacing McDonald while the other defensive linemen look like both potential starters and rotation guys after a handful of young players left that room via the portal.
Cam Calhoun looks like a hedge on having to lean too heavily on true freshmen if either of the older corners get hurt, and Dominick Kelly could be more of a future prospect following the loss of Aaron Scott Jr.
Of course they were all out of kickers, so Connor Hawkins was a necessity as a new starter but hopefully provides an upgrade.
They have a couple of young linebackers who appear to be ready for bigger roles, but Christian Alliegro gives them a guy with some experience and versatility who they know can play well in the Big Ten.
They could have needed even more new faces
Prior to revenue share payments and NIL giving players the opportunity to make as much or more as they can as rookies in the NFL, almost everyone who could went pro as soon as possible.
That made sense because they were only going to be able to increase their earning potential if they could jump from mid-round pick up into like the top 20, which would bring with it enough money to offset a year of lost income playing in college.
While offensive linemen Austin Siereveld, Luke Montgomery, Carson Hinzman and Phillip Daniels all would be better off returning anyway in my opinion (and Tshabola was the weak link on the line so his exit is probably best for all parties), cornerback Jermaine Mathews Jr. and defensive end Kenyatta Jackson seem like locks to have entered the draft in past years.
Instead, they will be back this fall as potential captains with a chance to write a memorable final chapter as Buckeyes — not to mention anchoring a defense that will have a lot of new faces again.
Brandon Inniss was not the most productive player last season, but he is an important glue guy and team leader.
In past years, he might also be another who might have felt he could not improve his draft stock much with another year and would be better off starting his pro career. Instead, he’ll be back in Scarlet and Gray this fall as a returning team captain in a room with a lot of new faces — and maybe he improves his draft prospects, too.
The biggest question you likely have is this: Did Ohio State get better or worse during this portal cycle?
I will fill out my depth chart spreadsheet and mull it over for a future newsletter, but my early inclination is to think they probably broke even.
Older players graduating or going pro is a fact of CFB, of course, and so is replacing them one way or another.
Time will tell how the new guys fit and how much they miss some of the youngsters who left in search or greener pastures and/or bigger/earlier paydays…
Before that, I’ve got a new recurring feature planned to drop this weekend that I’m really excited about.
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I’m also going to be following both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, writing about the Bengals and Reds when the mood strikes and perhaps some Southwest Ohio recruiting if I can find the time.
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1 Word on the street is there could be a press conference next week to discuss that and presumably much more about this ever-changing world of college football, but we’ll see if that comes to pass.
2 Here is it worth mentioning that many of the highly rated recruits are just early developers and the pack catches up to them by the time they turn 20 or so, but that is something we can examine in a later newsletter.