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Hello and welcome back to another edition of Cus Words Sports!
Today is the day Ohio State finds out who will be its opponent in the Cotton Bowl, which just happens to be a College Football Playoff quarterfinal game.
The question you might be wondering is, “Would the Buckeyes rather play Texas A&M or Miami?”
Well, let’s try to answer that this morning while you wait to see who wins their first-round game at noon in College Station.
Texas A&M or Miami?
Here are a few observations (after an ad I hope you’ll give a click)…
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Miami has a veteran quarterback and a talented defense
Former Georgia QB Carson Beck can be turnover-prone, but he has a dynamic freshman receiver in Malaki Toney, who is dangerous after the catch.
The Hurricanes are a pass-first team with great pass protection that gives Beck a chance to work.
Their offense is more efficient than explosive, which might be what they want to be against an Ohio State defense that doesn’t give up big plays.
Their raw rushing numbers aren’t impressive, but Pro Football Focus has assigned both the blockers and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (a Ohio State commit/one of many high-profile Tony Alford misses over the years) high grades.
The line isn’t as good at run blocking, but they still rank 45th nationally in line yards, which attempt to measure the effectiveness of run blocking by averaging the first four yards of a run (and yardage lost).
Miami Hurricanes season stats so far
Defensively, Miami has a statistical profile similar to Indiana
The Hurricanes attack the line of scrimmage and rank in the national top 20 in sacks and tackles for loss.
To that end, they are 11th in success rate but 101st in explosiveness.
Miami is 10th in defensive line yards and 10th in rushing success rate but 90th in rushing explosiveness allowed according to advanced stats from CollegeFootballData.com.
They are 14th in passing success rate and 54th in passing explosiveness while ranking ninth in havoc rate so they are coming after you even if it costs them some big plays allowed.
Here is the Pro Football Focus Playoff Preview if you want to read more.
Texas A&M has a dual-threat QB with weapons of his own
Sophomore Marcel Reed is less efficient at quarterback for the Aggies, but he is sixth in the nation in yards per completion (14.03) and adds a run threat.
He has a pair of receivers with over 800 yards receiving: KC Concepcion won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player, but Mario Craver is also dangerous. Both of them average more than 15 yards per reception.
Texas A&M counting stats via NCAA.com
On the other side of the ball, TAMU is seventh in success rate and 135th in explosiveness, so they profile similarly to the Hurricanes, but to greater extremes.
They are 23rd in defensive line yards and have a high havoc rate (that’s good for them) but have given up some big plays on the ground.
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Turnovers could be a big factor when they play each other
Yes, that is true of all games, but there’s a big difference between these two.
Texas A&M is 112th in turnover margin thanks in large part to only nine takeaways.
Miami is 12th in turnover margin so that could be an advantage for the Hurricanes, especially if Beck is safe with the ball.
Both teams also commit a lot of penalties, and both quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions, so mistakes might make the difference when all is said and done.
Bottom line…
Miami looks better on paper, but neither team is a pushover
The Hurricanes played in a weaker conference, but TAMU played a fairly soft version of the SEC schedule that concluded with being knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by rival Texas in the season finale.
That means both teams are relatively unknown even after playing 12 games, a good example of why a playoff with more than four teams was a good idea even if 12 might be too many.
Perhaps the best outcome for Ohio State is for the Aggies to ride the home crowd to a win.
That would set up another game where the Buckeyes are the de facto road game, but that is something they know how to deal with.
OK, that’s all for now! Enjoy a weekend full of football, and you can look for some more hot fresh Ohio State content next week.
The Buckeyes have interviews on Monday, and I’ll probably have another set of musings for you before that.
In the meantime, feel free to like my new work Facebook page (Click here), and don’t forget about my YouTube channel, either!
