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Vo. 1, No. 11
This week in Ohio State football, the Buckeyes return to Ross-Ade Stadium, what amounts to their personal house of horrors in the 21st Century.
What do I mean?
Ohio State is only 4-5 in West Lafayette since 2000.
That includes the shocking and embarrassing 49-20 loss under Urban Meyer in 2018 when Purdue was unranked and Ohio State was No. 2, a game that prevented those Buckeyes from making the College Football Playoff.
Before that, Jim Tressel called Purdue maybe the best 1-5 team in the country before enduring a 26-10 setback in 2009 that featured an implosion by sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor (mostly because No. 7 Ohio State couldn’t block Ryan Kerrigan).
In between, Ohio State lost an overtime game in 2011, an outcome I remember thinking removed any doubt if Luke Fickell would be retained as the permanent head coach.
A 24-17 loss in 2004 became lost to history when Troy Smith turned into Vic Janowicz against Michigan a week later, but the 31-27 Purdue win in 2000 is remembered as one of the seminal moments in the career of Drew Brees.
Ohio State won ugly games in West Lafayette in 2002 (the “Holy Buckeye” game) and 2007 (a 23-7 night game when those were still somewhat rare) along with blowouts in 2013 and ’23.
Of course none of that means much this week, but it is a little odd.
Ryan Day did make reference to the recent history there in his press conference Tuesday, but I’m sure it was far from the top of his mind.
“I mean, I was part of the ’18 team, so I know what that was like. And they have a lot of pride in that program. I think Barry Odom is a very, very good coach.
“These guys are well-coached, and he is a good man and a good football coach, and I know he's got a good staff there so we know we have to continue to get better this week.”
Like every week this season, the head coach of the Buckeyes spoke of both focusing on the game this week and how it fits into their quest to be the best when all is said and done.
“We have to continue to work to play our best game and master our process, and so that'll be my message to the guys.”
What to know about the Boilermakers
This is a week the advanced stats provide some potential insight the counting stats don’t.
First the basics: Purdue is 2-7 with seven consecutive losses.
Three of those are by one score, for what that is worth, including a 21-16 loss at Michigan last weekend.
The Boilermakers are not good at most aspects of football if you go by traditional statistics. They rank 64th in passing and are tied for 86th in rushing yards.
They average 22.1 points per game, which is 107th in the nation, and rank 74th in total offense.
The defense is similar, allowing 27 points per game (87th) and 395 yards per game (tied for 95th). They aren’t good at stopping the run or pass (91st in both), but they are 19th in red zone defense and 17th in net punting.
Pass efficiency is not Purdue’s friend whether the Boilermakers have the ball or not — they are 91st on offense and 109th on defense.
As far as advanced stats via CollegeFootballData.com, the defense has a very bad success rate and very bad defensive line yards ranking (those things are probably related) but is somewhat respectable at preventing big plays overall.
Their havoc rating is below average, but they are very good at preventing explosive runs.
On pass plays, they are bad all around with a 45% success rate (108) while still also allowing big plays (123rd in explosiveness).
The offense has displayed some efficiency on passing plays and passing downs but no explosiveness.
The running game is 44th in success rate and 42nd in explosiveness.
However, RB Devin Mockobee is a big part of that, and they announced this week he’s out of the season.
Overall, the offense is 41st in success rate but that figures to take a hit without Mockobee, who is fourth in career rushing yards at Purdue behind Mike Alstott, Kory Sheets and Otis Armstrong.
Malachi Thomas started in his place at Michigan last week and ran for 68 yards on 15 carries.
Michigan ran for 258 yards on Purdue without their best running back, so maybe this is a good measuring stick for Ohio State. Then again, the Buckeyes will probably just bomb them with the passing game anyway.
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Regarding the College Football Playoff rankings
I don’t care much about the CFP rankings at this point. I did not watch the show Tuesday night. Don’t know much about what the new committee chair made up on the fly about why they had Ohio State No. 1, Indiana second and Texas A&M third.
If they reversed those rankings or had Indiana on top, well, who cares? They’re going to play each other unless one of them gets upset between now and next month so it doesn’t really matter.
In fact, I’d probably argue Ohio State would benefit from not being No. 1 because a little more motivation never hurt anyone, did it?
I don’t think this team really needs it, but you never know.
That said, I do believe the people perplexed by this because Indiana might have a better resume are under the wrong impression about how it works.
The committee’s job is to pick the best 11 teams plus a Group of 5 sacrificial lamb.
(It’s right there in the CFP Selection Committee Protocol.)
They have never been charged with picking the most deserving or the team that played the toughest schedule, though some years they did. That was especially the case early on, which was good for Ohio State in ’14 and ’16 but bad in ’15 and ’17.
Strength of schedule is a tiebreaker, but you only need a tiebreaker if there is a tie.
If they just view Ohio State and Indiana as the best two teams because they have dominated their competition and they are more impressed with the Buckeyes on the field, that is their prerogative.
That said, Joe Rexrode of The Athletic made a good point when he wrote he would like to see the committee take into consideration nonconference schedule.
If Indiana is going to intentionally play a very weak one, that should hurt them at least a little.
Of course, Ohio State beating Texas is helping the Buckeyes quite a bit, but where would they be if they had lost that game? Texas would be ranked higher, of course, but I bet it would be more damaging to OSU than the win is helpful at this point.
TAMU’s whole resume is beating Notre Dame because its SEC schedule has been weak thanks to Florida and LSU being disappointments.
I guess then it is fair to say the Buckeyes and Aggies are being rewarded for challenging themselves — but only because they won.
That is not a great message for people making future schedules, but I expect it all to come out in the wash with some of the games remaining on everyone’s schedule, including a potential Big Ten title tilt between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers.
What else is going on?
Late-breaking this morning the Buckeyes picked up a commitment from legacy recruit Mason Wilhelm. He is a 2026 three-star offensive lineman who plays at Lakewood St. Edward in Northeast Ohio and the son of Matt Wilhelm, who was a star linebacker for the 2002 national championship team.
The younger Wilhelm had been committed to North Carolina.
He is the second flip of the week and follows four-star CB Jay Timmons of Pennsylvania, who was committed to Florida.
Wilhelm gives Ohio State five offensive linemen in the class of 2026 and nine commits from Ohio (plus Chris Henry Jr., who now attends school in California).
With Wilhelm in the fold, Ohio State has the No. 8 recruiting class in the country per 247Sports, one spot ahead of Texas and two ahead of Michigan.
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