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Vol. 2, No. 10
Ohio State is set to host Oregon this weekend in a game that was supposed to be one of the most anticipated of the season.
Instead, it’s one of the most fraught, presumably for both teams.
The Ducks will enter Ohio Stadium coming off a win but a shell of what they were expected to be… unless they turned a corner last week against Northwestern?
Ohio State goes into this game following its second loss of the season, but that is only the beginning of the story.
The Buckeyes started breaking in a new quarterback last week, and he ended up being low on the list of reasons the game ended up USC 30, Ohio State 18.
Now what?
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About Oregon
Oregon is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten.
The Ducks were projected to be a serious national championship contender before the season, but they were upset by Oklahoma State early in the season and have lost a pair of Big Ten games since star quarterback Dante Moore was lost for the season to a head injury at USC.
Oregon was 2-2 in October with losses to UCLA and Illinois. They nearly lost at Nebraska but rallied to win 17-14 in the closing minutes. Last week, they outscored Northwestern 21-6 in the second half to win 34-26.
Dan Lanning is in his fifth season as the head coach of the Ducks. He’s 54-10 overall and 1-1 against Ohio State.
He fired his offensive coordinator prior to the Northwestern game, and his defensive coordinator is Chris Hampton, an internal hire who also coaches the safeties.
Dylan Raiola, the former Nebraska quarterback who was also committed to Ohio State once upon a time, replaced Moore behind center and has had his ups and downs. That includes leading them to victory over USC before being benched in a loss to UCLA. He is coming off a pair of good games, though, including throwing for over 300 yards last week against Northwestern.
Leading rusher Jordon Davison is listed as out for this game, but Dierre Hill Jr. is still a capable back in his place.
The most important pieces of the offense are talented receivers Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart, who are both big plays waiting to happen.
On the other side of the ball, Matayo Uiagalelei is second in the Big Ten with six sacks while Teitum Tuioti is fourth with 5.5. Ify Obidegwu is tied for the league lead in passes broken up with nine.
Bailey Ettridge is second in the Big Ten in net punting average at 46.4 yards.
About the series
Ohio State leads the all-time series 10-2.
The Buckeyes won the most recent meeting 41-21 in the Rose Bowl two years ago. That was a rematch of a regular season game the Ducks won 32-31.
Oregon also won the last meeting in Columbus 35-28 in 2021, but Ohio State was 9-0 against the Ducks prior to that game.
For more on the series, check out this week’s Buckeye Historian.
Traditional and advanced stat profile
As far as traditional stats, Oregon’s 92nd-ranked running game sticks out.
The passing offense is 14th nationally in yards despite losing Moore and 32nd in passing efficiency. The Ducks are 38th in scoring offense and 47th in points allowed.
As far as yards, they are 52nd in total defense, including No. 58 against the run and tied for 61st against the pass. The pass efficiency defense is 39th.
Oregon has struggled on third downs offensively (99th) but been good defensively (20th) in those situations. The opposite is true in the red zone, where the offense has been efficient but the defense has struggled.
The Oregon defensive line was highly regarded before the season, but the Ducks are 44th in sacks and 105th in tackles for loss so that appears to be a two-man show.
That beats the offensive line, though, as Oregon is 118th in the country in tackles for loss allowed (more than six per game) and 31st in sacks allowed. The UO offensive line was considered a potential weak link before the season.
As far as advanced stats from CollegeFootballData.com, Oregon is 13th nationally in F+, a measure of both play-by-play and drive efficiency. That includes 35th in offense and 13th on defense. (Ohio State is No. 5 overall, including seventh on offense and fifth on defense.)
The offense is 90th in success rate but 35th in explosiveness, so that would indicate a boom-or-bust attack.
The Ducks are 129th in offensive line yards, which measure the effectiveness of run blocking, and 132nd in stuff rate (runs that go for no gain or a loss). They are 94th in power success rate (short-yardage situations), so it is safe to say the line is an issue.
They are 101st in havoc rate allowed, including 117th for the opposing front sevens, so that’s another indication the line is a weakness.
Oregon is 76th in standard downs success rate but 14th in explosiveness.
They’ve really struggled on passing downs and rushing plays. The passing game is 95th in passing plays success rate but 25th in explosiveness so it’s easy to see what makes them dangerous on paper at least.
The defense profiles differently, ranging 32nd in success rate and 77th in explosiveness.
They are 49th in defensive line yards and 65th in havoc rate, but all of that is from the secondary (No. 5) while the front seven ranks 125th.
The Ducks are 27th in success rate on standards downs and 47th in passing downs success rate, but they are 116th in passing downs explosiveness.
They are 28th in rushing play success rate but 87th in explosiveness, which matches up diametrically from Ohio State’s running game, and No. 37 in passing play success rate and 65th in pass play explosiveness.
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What else is going on this week?
This is a tough week to gauge because Ohio State has played one game without Julian Sayin, and Oregon has just been up and down all year — truly more down than up compared to preseason expectations.
That was the subject of my column for Press Pros:
Injuries are another part of the story this week beside the QBs:
Key defensive players Jay Timmons and Eddrick Houston are not on the injury report for Ohio State, so presumably they will play. Left tackle Ian Moore is questionable, though, as the OSU offensive line continues to be in flux…
This is a big recruiting weekend with visitors including the nation’s top prospect for 2027 class plus a couple of in-state prospects committed elsewhere who have gotten offers recently. Read more from Juck Miletti at BuckeyeInsiders.com:
Per usual, Buckeye Insiders had lots of great scheme and film breakdowns this week. Ross Fulton examined what went wrong on defense, particularly those big home run plays that were really the difference.
Ross also broke down the good and bad from the offense’s night at the Coliseum.
Beyond that, make sure you check out this week’s Tressel Tales as I continue recapping the first season of Jim Tressel’s tenure at Ohio State!
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Other places you can find my work
I also share my thoughts on the premium message boards at BuckeyeInsiders.com and BuckeyeSports.com.
My other writing appears mainly at PressProsMagazine.com, The Associated Press and MensJournal.com.
For the AP, I wrote about Ryan Day saying everything is up for evaluation this week and the feeling the playoffs have started early in Columbus.
Also don’t miss my weekly college football viewer’s guide at MJ (click here)!
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