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Vol. 2, No. 11
This week in Ohio State football, the Buckeyes play host to Northwestern in one of the least predictable Ohio State-Northwestern games I think I’ve ever encountered.
Then again, maybe the outcome should be obvious.
We’ll dig into that and everything else surrounding the matchup in this roundup of what you need to know about the Buckeyes that comes out every seven days.
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What to know about the Wildcats
Northwestern is 6-3 overall with a 3-3 mark in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats were 2-0 when they grabbed the attention of the college football world by nearly beating Indiana on the road in Week 3. The Hoosiers rallied for a 29-23 win, but Northwestern has since proved it’s not a pushover.
The Wildcats whipped Penn State a week later (though it turns out Penn State stinks) then beat Ball State, Michigan State and Rutgers.
They reached the top 25 after stomping the Scarlet Knights 42-14, but the Wildcats have lost their last two — 34-26 at Oregon and 24-10 at home against Iowa.
They led the Ducks at halftime, but the defense let down in the final 30 minutes. Last week, they were significantly hampered against the Hawkeyes without starting quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Chiles was playing like the highly-rated recruit he once was through the first eight games, but he is listed as out again this week.
Nicco Marchiol started in his place and completed 24 of 32 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 52 yards. The lefty can run the offense but doesn’t look to be as much of a dynamic runner as Chiles, who was dangerous outside the pocket.
Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II have combined for 1,054 total yards this season. Himon averages 8.4 yards per carry, while Griffin Wilde is the team’s top pass-catcher with 49 grabs for 813 yards and five touchdowns.
Senior linebacker Braydon Brus leads the team in tackles (75), tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (four).
Robert Fitzgerald, a senior DB, is one of their better defensive players but missed three games with injury. He returned last week to make seven tackles and an interception. He has a pick in the last three games in which he has played.
Ohio native Michael Kilbane has 6.5 tackles for loss while former Ohio State DT Dominic Kirks had his first career sack last week.
Kicker Jackson Kleather is a Tippecanoe grad who is 16 of 20 on field goals with a long of 52. He’s made 2/3 beyond 50 yards and is 6 for 10 beyond 40.
Series info
Ohio State leads the all-time series 66-14-1.
The Buckeyes won the first meeting 58-0 in 1913, the year Ohio State joined the Big Ten. They won the first five games in the series and have won the last 11 since an overtime loss in Evanston in 2004.
Ohio State last lost to the Wildcats at Ohio Stadium in 1971. That is the only Northwestern win in Columbus since 1963. Their best stretch in the series came from 1936-43 when they were 4-3-1.
This will be Northwestern’s first visit to Ohio Stadium since Ryan Day joined the Ohio State staff in 2017.
For more on the history between the Buckeyes and Wildcats, check out this week’s Buckeye Historian.
Statistically speaking (traditional/counting stats)
Northwestern is 38th overall in total offensive yards and tied for 49th in scoring (31 points per game).
The Wildcats are a run-first outfit but rank 19th nationally in passing efficiency.
Of note for Ohio State matchup purposes: The Wildcats rank No. 6 in red zone offense and tied for 17th in red zone defense.
The defense is just 75th overall and equally susceptible to the run (76th) and pass (70th) in terms of yards but 30th in passing efficiency defense.
Northwestern is 28th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg), suggesting some bend-don’t-breakiness, and 110th in tackles for loss and 104th in sacks.
Maybe most importantly: the ‘Cats are tied for fourth in the country at plus-12 in turnover margin, mostly because they don’t give the ball away.
Also worth noting: Northwestern is 122nd in net punting and 126th in punt returns.
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Statistically speaking (advanced stats)
Northwestern is 28th in F+, an advanced metric that combines play-by-play efficiency and drive efficiency. That includes the No. 23 offense and No. 37 defense in the country. (Ohio State is 7/13/12).
The Wildcats are 18th nationally and second in the Big Ten in success rate and 53rd/10th in explosiveness on offense according to numbers from CollegeFootballData.com.
They’re 38th in offensive line yards, but that is good for fourth in the Big Ten. More notable: They lead the Big Ten in second-level yards and open-field yards. That tells us this is a big-play running game thanks in no small part to Chip Kelly’s deploying a unique attack that includes some real Wing-T elements that are unfamiliar to many college defensive coordinators (let alone college defensive coordinators who spent most of their careers in the NFL?).
They are 109th nationally in defensive front seven havoc rate (17th in the Big Ten) but 29th and second in DB havoc rate, so they don’t put the ball up for grabs. That measures splash plays like sacks, tackles for loss and turnovers forced.
With Chiles, they had the No. 2 passing downs success rate in the Big Ten and were seventh in explosiveness while the running game is both efficient (2nd in success rate, 23rd nationally) and explosive (6th in Big Ten, 32nd nationally).
The defense isn’t great down to down (82nd/13th in success rate). They’re above average in terms of preventing explosives (25th/4th), but those were their undoing against Oregon two weeks ago.
The defensive line hasn’t caused havoc or been good against the run, but the secondary is fifth in the nation and No. 2 in the Big Ten in havoc rate so that could be an issue for a young Ohio State quarterback.
With a rushing success rate that is 90th in the country, this Northwestern run defense could be a good matchup for Ohio State, but perhaps they will devote more resources to stopping Bo Jackson, Isaiah West, et al this week.
What else to know this week
If you believe the stories, Woody Hayes used to spend at least part of Northwestern week preparing for Michigan. I don’t think Ryan Day will be doing that this week, and not just because the Wildcats are a legitimate opponent this season.
This is certainly the most desperate season I have covered, at least if you ignore the 2011 season that was a fluke for many reasons. That one actually started better than it was remembered, but the Buckeyes fell apart at the end and ended up 6-7 after losing their last four games.
I don’t think things will end up that bad this season, but it is technically still on the table. Of course, so is running that table and making the Big Ten Championship Game (with some help) so just how are we supposed to view this week?
Your mileage may vary, but I’ve been struck by all the talk about Ohio State needing to win its last three games, that actually being true, wondering if they can and being genuinely unsure. That is uncharted territory, at least for as long as I can remember…
For BuckeyeInsiders.com this week, I wrote something about how Ryan Day is hoping to both maximize the rest of this season and do what he can to prepare the team for 2027.
Getting healthy would help Ohio State’s odds, too.
According to the latest injury report, the Buckeyes can expect to get back offensive lineman Ian Moore this week, but now left guard Luke Montgomery is questionable.
Ja’Kobi Jackson is still out, and Phillip Bell and Brock Boyd are still questionable.
Here’s a thought experiment: Should Ohio State try Tavien St. Clair?
From where I sit, it’s awfully tempting, but I have a lot less information to work with than Ryan Day and his coaches.
They get to see and grade practices every day, and it’s also not as if St. Clair looked great in the spring game or early-season garbage time this fall.
Luke Fahey was fine for a first start at USC but looked worse (until the game was over for all intents and purposes) at home against Oregon. I would imagine there is no chance Day is going to make a switch at this point unless forced because he thinks (reasonably so) they have already endured growing pains that will hopefully pay off sooner rather than later.
Day might be right about that, but we’ll probably never know.
An interesting subplot here: When Sayin went down, the smart speculation was they would have to really simplify the offense. There’s clearly stuff Fahey can do from his high school tape as far as quick passes and RPOs to fill the gap, so that was the obvious path forward. Except it seems like they have tried to maintain as much of the regular offense as possible, and that has created some diminishing returns.
Well, if that is not going to work, I can’t help but wonder if going with the guy who has more physical talent might give them a better chance to win the next three games if the offense is significantly dialed back anyway.
It’s an interesting thought experiment at least…
A quote I liked this week from linebacker Christian Alliegro: “I think if you love football, you’re gonna have fun. I think Coach J (Larry Johnson) was talking about before practice, this is really when you find out who wants it and who really wants to play it hard and fast. So I think if you love football, you’re gonna have fun no matter what. Obviously, losing sucks. Nobody wants to lose, but if you’re a winner, you’ll figure it out.”
That’s interesting perspective because I think the fun quotient is probably lacking a lot this season, and not just because they aren’t winning. Even when they’re winning, I’m not sure if Ryan Day does a good job managing the mood of the team, and now that’s becoming more of an issue as pressure goes up weekly.
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Other places you can find my work
I also share my thoughts on the premium message boards at BuckeyeInsiders.com and BuckeyeSports.com.
My other writing appears mainly at PressProsMagazine.com, The Associated Press and MensJournal.com.
For the AP, I wrote more about Day sticking with Fahey and refusing to turn the page toward 2027 yet.
For Press Pros, I also wrote about the Ohio State women’s basketball team losing to UConn on Thursday night.
At BuckeyeInsiders, you can find my recaps of the UConn game as well as the men’s win over Marshall on Monday night.
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