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Vo. 2, No. 5
This week in Ohio State football, the Buckeyes travel to Iowa.
The last time they went there, it did not go well (as you might have heard).
Does that mean anything for this trip?
No, but it could be informative anyway. The same might be true of the last time the Buckeyes were there with these types of stakes.
Let’s take a closer look…
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What to know about Iowa
Iowa is 4-0 for the first time since 2021 with a pair of wipeouts of Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa plus close calls against Iowa State and Michigan.
The Hawkeyes are ranked 14th, so this will be the first time both teams are in the top 15 since 2006, which is also the last time this game had so much pregame attention.
Statistically, this definitely looks like a Kirk Ferentz Iowa team.
Per traditional statistics, the Hawkeyes are pretty average on offense and pretty good on defense:
Iowa offense ranks of note (national ranking):
Scoring 58th
Rushing 27
Passing 86
Passing efficiency 96th
Total yards 48th
Third down 82nd
Red zone t-81st
Advanced stats tell us a lot more in this case.
Overall, the Iowa offense is average in success rate (54th in the country) while below average in explosiveness (76th).
The Hawkeyes are 16th in offensive line yards, which measures the effectiveness of run blocking regardless of what the running back does after he breaks through the line of scrimmage. They are 48th in second-level yards (yards 5-10 of a run) and 10th in open-field yards (beyond 10). That comes with a caveat, though, as all of their runs of 20 yards or more came against UNI or NIU.
Advanced stats from CollegeFootballData.com also tell us the passing game has been somewhat efficient (29th in success rate) but not explosive at all (135th).
Do the numbers match the eye test? Yes.
Tim Lester was hired as offensive coordinator to revamp the Iowa attack prior to last season, and he has done that — somewhat. They will still line up with two tight ends and run the zone play, but they also spend a good amount of time in the shotgun with 11 personnel. It’s a ball-control passing game designed to keep the sticks moving even when they aren’t able to impose their will with the offensive line.
Hank Brown looks to be a serviceable quarterback, but the unit struggled overall at Michigan until the final drive, which included a miracle catch on a tipped pass, a big personal foul on Michigan and an injury stopping the clock BEFORE the game-winning touchdown pass.
Iowa defense ranks of note (national ranking):
1st in scoring
10th in total yards
19th against the run
12th against the pass
12th on third downs
18th in the red zone
93rd in tackles for loss
49th in sacks
The Hawkeyes have only allowed three touchdowns, including two last week at Michigan.
The Wolverines had some consistent success throwing the ball, which is noteworthy because of the disastrous start to the season for prized sophomore QB Bryce Underwood. If you turn on that tape you’ll see most of the success was via two things: Quick throws and broken plays.
Underwood is good when he’s out on the run, and he hit a couple of big plays in those situations. Other times the coaching staff gave him some quick and easy reads he was able to execute (which does reflect progress), something I believe was aided by Iowa being fairly predictable in its off-man coverage schemes.
Advanced stats show Iowa is 10th in success rate and 26th in explosiveness, so the Hawkeyes are not easy to move the ball against.
They are really good against the run, especially at preventing big runs, but they have not done much as far as rushing the passer or getting in the backfield.
One surprise from the advanced stats: Iowa is 26th in success rate against the pass but 124th in explosiveness, so this is not a bend-don’t-break defense.
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What else is going on this week?
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I had a story for the Associated Press this week on the state of the Ohio State defense, which is still trying to find itself after losing some elite talents to the NFL Draft.
One thing that would help the defense is more havoc from the front, and Ryan Day says they are “accepting all applications.”
For BuckeyeInsiders.com, scheme expert Ross Fulton broke down the defense’s struggles against Illinois and concluded the problem is a mix of players and plan (maybe more so the latter). The players aren’t as good, sure, but they were not always in the best position to succeed, either. Good news: That is fixable! (But will they fix it?)
Ross also broke down the Ohio State offense, which continues to evolve via the use of RPOs to supplement the running game that has shown some signs but still leaves something to be desire.
As far as the evolution, I found the most interesting thing Ryan Day had to say Tuesday was in regard to what he’s seen from Arthur Smith so far as Ohio State offensive coordinator. It almost sounded like he was talking about a young player trying to find his way…
At PressProsMagazine.com, Jeff Gilbert explored what it’s going to take for Ohio State to be at its best in Iowa City: Avoid rat poison.
(I’ll be covering Vandalia Butler at Troy on Friday night for Press Pros, BTW)
I also had my weekly look at what was going on 25 years ago during Jim Tressel’s first season as head coach at Ohio State.
BONUS CONTENT!
Aside from this newsletter, I’m also sharing my thoughts on the premium messages board BuckeyeInsiders.com and BuckeyeSports.com.
Beyond that, I’m writing for multiple sites, including primarily PressProsMagazine.com, The Associated Press and MensJournal.com.
At Men’s Journal, I did something on games to watch across college football this week, a note on Jeremiah Smith becoming the Heisman Trophy favorite after a month of games and the beer brand that scored the best in a recent survey by YouGov.
Ohio State men’s basketball had media day this week, and I wrote this notebook you’ll want to check out so you can get in on the ground floor of a team that looks like it could be a lot better this season.
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