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Here’s a bonus post for you this week since this was supposed to be a big game. Let’s take a closer look at Penn State on paper.
Is Penn State really as bad as its record?
The short answer is no.
The longer answer is… probably not.
Let me explain:
The Nittany Lions are 21st in F+, which is an advanced metric that combines play-by-play efficiency (SP+) and average drive success (FEI).
(Ohio State is No. 1 in F+ followed by Indiana and Oregon in case you were wondering.)
They are 28th in Pro Football Focus team rankings, although I’ve never quite figured out how they quantify that (Ohio State is 2nd).
So Penn State probably should be better than 3-4 even if it isn’t really College Football Playoff material. Northwestern and UCLA are 60th and 71st, respectively, in F+, so Penn State had no business losing those games, but that is why James Franklin is now unemployed.
To be honest, I’m typically not a fan of these complicated formulas in any sport, but like Wins Above Replacement in baseball they can offer some short-hand, generalized idea of how good a team is or isn’t.
More than the overall number, I’m interested in what goes into it: What is a team good at, and where does a team struggle?
That gives us a more complete picture of what type of team is coming to Columbus on Saturday.
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As the counting stats tell us, Penn State’s offense isn’t much to write home about.
The Nittany Lions are 55th in the country in rushing yards and 90th in passing, but they are 36th in scoring (34 points per game, though that includes points scored by the defense and special teams of course).
Advanced stats from CollegeFootballData.com tell us that running game is fairly effective thanks in no small part to a solid offensive line: They are 24th in rushing success rate and 21st in offensive line yards, so they are able to make four or five yards with some consistency as long as Kaytron Allen (6.2 yards per carry) is getting the ball and not Nick Singleton (3.6 ypc.).
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com
The Nittany Lions stay ahead of the chains but that hasn’t helped them a lot because the passing game just wasn’t dynamic with senior Drew Allar (who is out for the season with an injury) and might take a step back with redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer.
Why mention the passing numbers if there is a new quarterback? Because they indicate the revamped receiving corps hasn’t made much of a difference, either.
Penn State is 52nd in passing success rate but 130th in passing explosiveness.
What about the defense under old friend Jim Knowles?
Early in his time as Ohio State defensive coordinator, Knowles bristled at the idea of having a bend-but-don’t break defense.
His very first play in the box for the Buckeyes he called a zero blitz with no free safety against Notre Dame (and gave up a big play to Lorenzo Styles Jr., who is now a defensive back at Ohio State) to signal that was the way he wanted to play.
Knowles was famous for being able to live with giving up a handful of explosive plays in a game game as long as most of them were home runs (a strategy that totally blew up in his face against Michigan and Georgia in 2022, but that is another story).
Well, his first Penn State defense is 55th in success rate and fourth in explosiveness so they are letting teams have consistent gains in exchange for keeping a lid on the defense.
Advanced stats from CollegeFootballData.com
The Nittany Lions have also failed to make big plays of their own, ranking 81st in sacks and 62nd in tackles for loss.
Although the front has some talented players — most notably end Dani Dennis-Sutton — they lost their best linebacker (Tony Rojas) to a season-ending injury, and the front seven is 57th in havoc rate, which measures tackles for loss and fumbles forced. But hey, that’s twice as good as the secondary, which is 116th in havoc rate (passes broken up or intercepted).
Nonetheless, they’ve also been pretty bad against the run, ranking 84th in success rate on rushing plays, 69th in explosiveness and 90th in yards allowed on the ground per game (158.7 yards per game).
The numbers are good in the secondary, though, with standouts Zakee Wheatley and King Mack grading out well per PFF and the unit ranking 30th in success rate on pass plays and third in explosiveness (so again with the bend/don’t break).
What does it all mean?
I’ll break it down further for the Friday newsletter, but if styles make fights, this one should have a couple of interesting contrasts.
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