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Anything short of Jake Diebler’s team losing by 30 to TCU will probably be received as, “OK, that was fine. Now do better next year.”

Obviously, winning in the first round is better than losing, but I feel like No. 1 Duke lurking behind Door No. 2 is enough to ratchet down the urgency.

Nobody thinks they are going to beat the Blue Devils, so even losing to the Horned Frogs might not feel that distressing.

The Buckeyes are certainly not just happy to be there, but the way this season has gone making the field of 68 was a true source of joy.

That said, this is a situation the Buckeyes should hope to never be in again.

Do they have to win Thursday to stamp this season as a success?

I don’t know if it really matters.

In a given year, winning and losing in the tournament is somewhat random — even the true powerhouse programs get dumped in the first or second round once in a while.

But you have to actually be in the field to get upset. If you make it every year, you accumulate enough data points to be able to call upsets anomalies.

I’ve gone on record this year (and in the past) saying Ohio State men’s basketball is not a good job right now.

The Word Defining Ohio State Basketball Right Now

That doesn’t mean a good coach can’t win in Columbus. It means there’s a lot they have to overcome — the building, the unsettled recruiting base and most of all the fans just not caring that much, especially when the Buckeyes aren’t elite.

Yes, the fundamentals of program building are the coach connecting with the player both to get him on campus and to develop his game (plus the finances). But I’m sure it helps when a recruit comes to a game and it’s loud and fun and the crowd is into it, which isn’t that common for Ohio State basketball.

The finances can cut both ways. Of course the more money you have, the more likely you are to get the best players — and more of them. But the money flow is going to be impacted by the passion of the fanbase, too. And no matter what, you have to spend the money wisely of course.

All that is to say while everything necessary to win is there, it’s a heavier lift than it might appear. That’s probably why the average Ohio State basketball team is, well, average or worse unless we’re talking about a few specific periods of time (The early ’60s, the Jimmy Jackson teams, the Redd/Penn years and the first half of the Thad Matta era).

(Also the tournament selection process is now rigged for the power teams, which is why even the last few objectively meh Ohio State teams were still on the bubble., but that is a different topic.)

I’m glad Ohio State made the tournament because it’s good to be in the tournament, yes, but I also think stability is probably better than change for the program right now so Jake Diebler buying more time is good.

But as I said, this should be the last time just making the tournament is a reason to celebrate.

Ideally there will be down years where making the tournament is viewed as a success, but hopefully the Buckeyes can get back to where it’s not only the norm but they’ll have the type of roster to compete with the Dukes of the world rather than already knowing they are dead in round two if they get there.

At first glance, TCU might be a good matchup for Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have a really good offense when they are on, and TCU apparently does not.

Ohio State’s late-season surge has also been a result of playing much better defense, so that could bode well for them.

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This Ohio State team is not a national title contender, but the Buckeyes have been upset on their home floor in the second round each of the last two years.

Like the men, this program looks to be in position to take a step up next season, but McGuff’s team is also starting at a much stronger position.

The OSU women have made the tournament five years in a row and nine times in McGuff’s 13 years.

They have not lost in the first round, and their four Sweet 16s are an improvement over predecessor Jim Foster, who only made three in his (12/13) years.

Big Ten WBB Tournament takeaways: Buckeyes bow out in semifinals, look ahead to March Madness

A stunning third-round upset of Connecticut in 2023 scored Ohio State’s first Elite Eight since Katie Smith’s freshman season (1993), but they have not built on that.

To get back to the Sweet 16, they will have to beat MEAC champion Howard on Saturday and then probably Notre Dame on Monday.

The Fighting Irish present an interesting matchup as they look similar to Ohio State on paper: Built around a small guard with a big game (Hannah Hidalgo and Jaloni Cambridge, respectively) and relying more on perimeter play than the the post.

Roster building is a year-to-year proposition in college basketball these days, but both Ohio State squads look to be in good position if they can retain their corps.

The men will have to replaced Bruce Thornton, of course, but the that’s where the portal can giveth if it doesn’t taketh away too much else, and they are adding McDonald’s All-American Anthony Thompson, originally of Lebanon.

The women lose sharp-shooting guard Chance Gray but everyone else is due back.

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I know lots of people like to dump on the First Four, but I think it rocks.

I assume most of the sayers of nay have not been to one.

Fun storylines always emerge, the visitors typically have great things to say about UD Arena (duh) and the games are often fun, too.

The NCAA mandated this needs to feel just like the first- and second-round sites, and I believe the folks at UD do a good job of making that reality from the interviews to the open practices to the games themselves in the country’s best basketball arena in front of thousands of fans (likely more than they will get at many sites Thursday or Friday).

This year we already know there will be a major storyline with Miami University being part of the draw. Can the RedHawks justify their invitation by beating SMU on Tuesday night? What kind of crowd will make the trip up from Oxford? I can’t wait to find out.

Then we’ve also got Sean Miller making another return to Dayton. He was here with Xavier last season and knocked out Texas — the team he is now coaching.

In another twist, fans from out of town seem to be making a bigger effort to get here for the First Four.

Last year, North Carolina fans took over the arena on Tuesday night.

Then Xavier fans did the same Wednesday night, defying expectations UD fans might just show up to boo the Musketeers. (I guess that goes to show how much easier it is to resell tickets nowadays.)

I fully acknowledge the First Four is a silly concept, though probably less so than the play-in games that preceded it.

There was no need to expand to 68 when they did, but the alternative was another 32 so this is far superior to that.

There is no need to expand beyond 68, either, especially since the people agitating for it have made no secret they just want to see more “mid” major teams (power conference squads hovering around .500) in the dance as opposed to using expansion get more mid-majors (smaller conference teams that punch above their weight) into the dance.

Bottom line: If you don’t like the First Four, that’s fine. Don’t watch.

I see it as a net positive for the whole tournament: A few extra games for people who can’t wait for Thursday, and there is a competitive reason for it to exist given that a First Four team goes on to win in the round of 64 almost every year, and two teams have made it all the way to the Final Four.

Big Ten WBB Tournament takeaways: Buckeyes bow out in semifinals, look ahead to March Madness